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A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory.

Wei Bao1, Jun Yue2, Yulei Rao1

  • 1Business School, Central South University, Changsha, China.

Plos One
|July 15, 2017
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a new deep learning model combining wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs), and long-short term memory (LSTM) for improved stock price forecasting. The novel framework enhances predictive accuracy and profitability in financial markets.

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Area of Science:

  • Computational finance
  • Artificial intelligence in finance
  • Time series analysis

Background:

  • Deep learning is increasingly applied in finance, attracting investor and researcher interest.
  • Accurate stock price forecasting remains a significant challenge due to market noise and complexity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel deep learning framework for stock price forecasting.
  • To integrate wavelet transforms (WT), stacked autoencoders (SAEs), and long-short term memory (LSTM) for enhanced prediction.
  • To introduce SAEs for hierarchical feature extraction in stock price prediction for the first time.

Main Methods:

  • A three-stage deep learning framework was developed.
  • Wavelet transforms (WT) were used to denoise stock price time series data.

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  • Stacked autoencoders (SAEs) generated deep, high-level features from denoised data.
  • Long-short term memory (LSTM) networks forecasted the next day's closing price using these features.
  • Main Results:

    • The proposed WT-SAEs-LSTM model was evaluated on six market indices and their futures.
    • The model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to existing methods.
    • The framework also exhibited enhanced profitability performance.

    Conclusions:

    • The combined WT-SAEs-LSTM deep learning framework offers a powerful approach for stock price forecasting.
    • The novel integration of SAEs for feature extraction significantly improves prediction.
    • The model shows practical viability for investors seeking improved market performance.