Spatial patterns of dengue cases in Brazil.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Statistical modeling
• Vector-borne diseases

Background:

• Dengue is a major global public health concern and the most common viral disease transmitted by vectors.
• Understanding dengue's spatial and temporal dynamics is crucial for effective control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To statistically investigate the spatial spreading and temporal evolution of dengue epidemics across all Brazilian municipalities over a 12-year period.
• To identify key factors influencing dengue case distribution and spatial correlations.

Main Methods:

• Statistical analysis of dengue case data from Brazilian municipalities over 12 years.
• Power-law analysis to describe case distributions and spatial correlations.
• Investigation of latitudinal and longitudinal dependencies of dengue incidence.
• Modeling spatial correlation using an Edwards-Wilkinson equation with fractional spatial derivative.

Main Results:

• Dengue case distributions in municipalities followed time-persistent power laws.
• Infection incidence scaled linearly with municipal population.
• Average dengue cases showed latitudinal variation, increasing towards the Equator.
• Spatial correlation of cases decayed with distance, following a power-law with an exponential cut-off, defining a typical dengue travel distance.

Conclusions:

• Dengue epidemic patterns in Brazil exhibit predictable statistical properties related to population and geography.
• Latitudinal position significantly influences dengue case distribution, suggesting regional vulnerability.
• The findings provide a framework for modeling dengue's spatial spread and informing public health interventions.