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Modelling infectious diseases with relapse: a case study of HSV-2
Jinliang Wang1, Xiaoqing Yu1, Heidi L Tessmer2
1School of Mathematical Science, Heilongjiang University, Harbin, 150080, People's Republic of China.
Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling
|July 19, 2017
Summary
A new mathematical model for Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 (HSV-2) suggests improving vaccine efficacy is key for eradication. Equal vaccine distribution between sexes is more effective than concentrating on females, despite higher female transmission risk.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 (HSV-2) is a prevalent sexually transmitted disease.
- No licensed vaccine currently exists for HSV-2, necessitating theoretical investigations into vaccine impact.
- Previous studies often used compartmental models for specific cases, lacking comprehensive global stability results.
Purpose of the Study:
- To formulate a multi-group SVIRI epidemic model for HSV-2.
- To incorporate vaccination, waning immunity, and infection relapse into the model.
- To analyze global stability and estimate the basic reproduction number (ℜ₀) for HSV-2.
Main Methods:
- Developed a multi-group SVIRI epidemic model applicable to various population structures (risk, sex, age).
- Defined and analyzed the basic reproduction number (ℜ₀) to determine disease equilibrium stability.
- Applied the model to US data (2001-2014) for risk groups to estimate ℜ₀ and conduct sensitivity analysis.
Main Results:
- The model demonstrates global asymptotic stability for disease-free or endemic equilibrium based on ℜ₀ value.
- Sensitivity analysis indicates ℜ₀ for HSV-2 is approximately 2-3.
- The study provides insights into optimal vaccination strategies for HSV-2 eradication.
Conclusions:
- Enhancing vaccine efficacy is a more impactful strategy than simply increasing vaccination numbers.
- An equitable vaccine distribution between male and female populations is more effective than focusing solely on females, despite higher female transmission rates.
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