[Overweight and obesity in the canton of Vaud : projections for 2040]

The worldwide prevalence of obesity has more than doubled since 1980. This global figure needs to be addressed tackled at the local level to face our future challenges at the local level. We attempted to project the prevalence of obesity in the canton of Vaud in the next 25 years. Data from the Enquête suisse sur la santé, a survey conducted every five years since 1992 by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, were used. Using different mathematical assumptions, the rate of increase in the prevalence of obesity in Switzerland between 1992 and 2012 was calculated allowing a projection of future prevalences. Between 1992 and 2016, the prevalence of obesity was 9.64%. Effective growth rate of obesity from 2016 to 2040 should be between 16'500 cases and 69'500 cases depending on the uncertainty of the effective prevalence increase over this period.