Related Experiment Video
Updated: Feb 26, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error
Seon Tae Kim1, Hye-In Jeong2, Fei-Fei Jin3
1Climate Prediction Department, APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea. seontae.kim@apcc21.org.
Abstract:
This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.
More Related Videos
10:28Investigating the Relationship between Sea Surface Chlorophyll and Major Features of the South China Sea with Satellite Information
Published on: June 13, 2020
04:35Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
Published on: July 3, 2020
Related Concept Videos
Random Error
Standard Error of the Mean
The standard error of the mean is an example of a standard error. It is a unique standard deviation known as the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean. The standard error of the mean is a statistic that calculates how correctly a sample distribution represents a...
Bias in Epidemiological Studies
Bias
In statistics, a sampling bias is created when a sample is collected from a population, and some members of the population are not as likely to be chosen as others (remember, each member...
Random and Systematic Errors
Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.