Performance bias: Why judgments of learning are not affected by learning

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Learning sciences
• Human performance

Background:

• A performance bias exists where individuals expect future performance to match current levels.
• This bias may stem from the observability of current performance versus the unobservability of learning or forgetting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To test if making learning observable influences judgments of learning.
• To investigate whether judgments are guided by performance or the learning process itself.

Main Methods:

• Three experiments were conducted involving skill practice.
• Participants estimated past and future performance after practicing.
• Observability of learning was manipulated across experiments.

Main Results:

• Participants recognized their improvement during practice (learning was observable).
• Despite observable learning, participants did not predict future improvement.
• Judgments of learning were primarily influenced by current performance, not the learning trend.

Conclusions:

• Making learning observable did not alter the performance bias in judgments.
• Judgments of learning appear to be guided by observable performance, even when learning is also evident.
• This suggests a disconnect between the awareness of learning and its impact on future performance predictions.