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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 25, 2026

Microbial Communities in Nature and Laboratory - Interview

Microbial Communities in Nature and Laboratory - Interview

Published on: May 28, 2007

Dynamic macroecology and the future for biodiversity.

Karel Mokany¹, Thomas D Harwood¹, Kristen J Williams¹

¹CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Climate Adaptation Flagship, PO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.

Global Change Biology

|July 26, 2017

Summary

Climate change will significantly alter plant communities in Tasmania, causing major species loss and turnover. This dynamic macroecological approach models these impacts across all species, aiding conservation efforts for biodiversity retention.

Keywords:

Climate Change Community Dissimilarity Diversity Metacommunity Model Plant Richness Tasmania

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Area of Science:

Ecological modeling
Biodiversity conservation
Climate change impacts

Background:

Accurate climate change impact projections are crucial for effective biodiversity conservation.
Current species-focused models have limitations; macroecological approaches can incorporate community-level processes.
Dynamic macroecological methods offer a way to project impacts across entire taxonomic groups.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and apply a dynamic macroecological approach for projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity.
To overcome knowledge gaps by modeling community-level changes rather than individual species.
To incorporate dispersal and community assembly processes into climate change impact assessments.

Main Methods:

Utilized DynamicFOAM to predict current community compositions.
Employed a new metacommunity model (M-SET) to project future community changes under climate and habitat scenarios.
Applied the approach at a fine resolution to Tasmanian plant biodiversity (2,051 species).

Main Results:

Projected high average community composition turnover (mean Sorensen's dissimilarity = 0.71) from 2010 to 2100.
Anticipated significant reductions in species richness (average loss of 32.9 species per community).
Identified habitats valuable for retaining rare and under-reserved species under climate change.

Conclusions:

The dynamic macroecological approach effectively projects climate change impacts on diverse taxa simultaneously.
No plant species are projected to benefit from climate change in the long term in Tasmania.
This method provides valuable insights for conservation strategies by incorporating key ecological processes and simple macroecological inputs.