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Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly
Elise F Zipkin1,2, Leslie Ries2,3, Rick Reeves4
1USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD, 20708, USA.
Global Change Biology
|July 26, 2017
Summary
Climate impacts on monarch butterflies are complex, with spring conditions in Texas influencing population growth and arrival times in Ohio. Summer temperatures in Ohio affect abundance, but local conditions can mitigate benefits.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Migratory species face complex climate challenges across diverse, changing environments.
- Previous studies often fail to isolate climate effects at different life stages of migration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the distinct impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) breeding phenology and population dynamics.
- To differentiate climate influences during the spring breeding phase in Texas and the main summer recruitment phase in Ohio.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a Poisson regression model to analyze annual arrival times and population abundances of monarch butterflies in the Midwestern United States.
- Incorporated climate data (temperature, precipitation) from both Texas (spring) and Ohio (summer) breeding periods.
- Analyzed data from a state-wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio.
Main Results:
- High spring precipitation and intermediate spring temperatures in Texas positively correlated with increased monarch population growth and earlier arrival in Ohio.
- Spring climate conditions in Texas, not Ohio, influenced monarch arrival timing to summer breeding grounds.
- Warmer summer temperatures in Ohio generally increased monarch abundances, but this effect was less pronounced at already warm sites.
Conclusions:
- Climate impacts on monarch butterflies are multifaceted and season-dependent, with conflicting influences from spring and summer conditions.
- Understanding monarch butterfly population dynamics requires considering climate effects across multiple geographic locations and life stages.
- Predicting the future impact of climate change on monarch butterflies necessitates nuanced models accounting for these complex interactions.
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