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Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?
Ángel G Muñoz1,2,3, Madeleine C Thomson3,4,5, Anna M Stewart-Ibarra6
1Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, United States.
Frontiers in Microbiology
|July 28, 2017
Summary
Predicting the 2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic was challenging. However, a new model using climate forecasts shows potential for predicting conditions suitable for Aedes-borne diseases like Zika in Latin America.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology and Climate Science
- Vector-borne Disease Modeling
Background:
- The 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic's emergence in South America was largely unpredictable due to limited prior data.
- Previous understanding of ZIKV epidemiology and long-term case records in the continent were insufficient for accurate forecasting.
- Generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic risk was the best possible prediction given the knowledge at the time.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the predictability of conditions conducive to Aedes-borne epidemics, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue.
- To evaluate a two-vector basic reproduction number model using climate and seasonal forecast data.
- To compare the predictive skill of a new seasonal forecast system for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model.
- Forced the model with observed climate data and operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME).
- Assessed the model's predictive skill for transmission risk across different seasons and regions.
Main Results:
- The seasonal forecast system demonstrated highest predictive skill for Latin America and the Caribbean during December-February and March-May seasons.
- Above-normal conditions suitable for Zika epidemics in early 2015 could have been predicted at least one month in advance for key areas, including Northeast Brazil.
- Predictive skill was slightly lower but still potentially useful for decision-makers during other parts of the year.
Conclusions:
- Climate conditions are critical but not the sole drivers of vector-borne epidemics; other factors influence initiation and spread.
- The developed approach serves as a valuable guide for predicting epidemic-conducive conditions, not a definitive predictive tool.
- Seasonal climate forecasts show promise for improving preparedness for diseases like Zika, chikungunya, and dengue in vulnerable regions.
