Predictive factors of mortality in a tunisian cohort with systemic lupus erythematosus

Mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) has decreased with the advent of immunosuppressive therapy and the development of hemodialysis. This study aims to evaluate the survival rate, factors of poor prognosis, and causes of death in SLE in a Tunisian series. The records of all SLE patients followed up in a single center during 1974-2014 were reviewed. The causes of death were identified. Prognostic factors of survival were analyzed by multivariate analysis using the comparison of the survival rates by the log-rank test. Two hundred ninety-nine patients with SLE were included (274 women, 25 men) aged meanly of 27.52 years at diagnosis. The death occurred in 50 cases (16.7%). The mean age at death was 28.46 years (14-69 years). The patient survival rates at 5, 10, and 20 years were 83.8%, 78.6%, and 56.7%, respectively. The leading causes of death were active SLE (50%) and infectious complications (36%). Independent factors of poor prognosis identified by multivariate analysis were myocarditis (P = 0.029), splenomegaly (P = 0.0015), and worsening of renal function (P = 0.004). Remission was identified as a protective factor (P = 0.047). Our study shows that renal disease remains the primary cause and the main predictor of death in SLE, which is consistent with the literature data.