Natural history of human immunodeficiency virus infection in Zaire

The natural history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Zaïre was determined by identifying in October, 1984, 125 seropositive hospital personnel without signs or symptoms and 145 age and sex matched seronegative controls from the same population. Between July, 1985, and February, 1986, 67 seropositives, including 38 men and 29 women, and 113 seronegatives were interviewed and examined by an observer who did not know their serological status. The acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) had developed in 1 seropositive and no seronegatives (rate difference, 1.3/100 person-years [py]; 95% confidence interval 0-3.3/100 py); AIDS-related complex or generalised lymphadenopathy had developed in 8 seropositives (12%) and 1 seronegative (1%) (rate ratio, 13.2; 95% confidence interval 1.3-134.6); and minimal lymphadenopathy had developed in 19 seropositives (28%) and 8 seronegatives (7%) (rate ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval 1.8-8.4). These data provide the first estimates for rates of progression to AIDS or AIDS-related conditions among healthy HIV seropositive heterosexual adults. Rates observed in this study are similar to those reported in US or European homosexual or bisexual men.