How Many Dentists Are Needed in 2040: Executive Summary.

Area of Science:

• Dental Public Health
• Healthcare Workforce Planning
• Health Services Research

Background:

• The
• Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century
• project analyzed factors influencing future dentist demand.
• Key factors include population oral health, service utilization trends, technological advancements, and practice model shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the number of dentists required in 2040.
• To compare projected needs with current trends in dental education and practice.
• To inform policy decisions regarding dental workforce supply.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of five background articles examining factors impacting dentist demand.
• Synthesis of data on oral health improvements, service utilization, technology, and practice structures.
• Estimation of future dentist requirements based on identified trends.

Main Results:

• Significant improvements in population oral health, particularly among higher-income groups.
• A notable decline in per capita utilization of restorative and prosthetic dental services.
• Increased patient capacity in large capitated group practices compared to solo practices (2,100 vs. 1,350 patients/dentist).

Conclusions:

• Projected slower growth in demand for traditional dental care may result in a dentist surplus by 2040.
• The study highlights a critical policy question: should dental schools proactively reduce graduate numbers, or are alternative solutions available?
• Addressing potential workforce imbalances requires strategic planning to avoid market-driven downsizing or closures.