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Patients in palliative care-Development of a predictive model for anxiety using routine data
Sonja Hofmann1, Stephanie Hess2, Carsten Klein1
1Department of Palliative Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Erlangen, CCC Erlangen-EMN, Friedrich- Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany.
Plos One
|August 4, 2017
Summary
A predictive model for anxiety in palliative care patients was developed using routine data. This model, incorporating patient and treatment factors, achieved a fair predictive value (AUC=0.72) for identifying anxiety risks.
Area of Science:
- Palliative Care Medicine
- Psychological Symptomology
- Health Services Research
Background:
- Anxiety is a prevalent psychological symptom in patients undergoing palliative care.
- Routine documentation data offers a potential resource for developing predictive models.
- Identifying anxiety predictors is crucial for timely patient support.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a predictive model for anxiety in palliative care patients.
- To utilize routinely collected data for anxiety risk prediction.
- To assess the predictive accuracy of the developed model.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a large dataset (n=9924) from the Hospice and Palliative Care Evaluation (HOPE) system (2007-2011).
- Employed multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection on a training set.
- Validated the model using a test set and evaluated predictive accuracy via Area Under the Curve (AUC).
Main Results:
- A predictive model for anxiety was identified, including demographic, clinical, and medication-related variables.
- Key predictors included gender, age, ECOG performance status, living situation, and various symptoms (pain, nausea, dyspnea, appetite loss, tiredness).
- The model demonstrated a fair predictive value with an AUC of 0.72.
Conclusions:
- Routinely collected data in palliative care settings contain valuable information for predicting anxiety risks.
- The developed model can aid in identifying patients at risk for anxiety, facilitating targeted support.
- Further research should focus on leveraging these findings for enhanced patient care in palliative settings.
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