The Baveno VI criteria for predicting esophageal varices: validation in real life practice

According to the Baveno VI consensus, patients with liver stiffness < 20 kPa and a platelet count > 150,000 ul have very low risk of clinically significant varices and do not need a screening endoscopy. The aim of this study was to evaluate non-invasive methods as predictors of esophageal varices according to the Baveno VI recommendations, in real life clinical practice.

Retrospective evaluation of patients with chronic liver disease who underwent transient elastography between January 2013 and December 2015.

One hundred and four patients were included in the study, the median age was 56.8 years and 69.2% were male. The etiology of liver disease was hepatitis C in 80% of patients (including 20% with HIV co-infection), alcohol in 12%, hepatitis B in 4% and other causes in 5%. Varices were present in 25% of patients. A liver stiffness < 20 kPa had a sensitivity of 92.3% and a specificity of 84.6%. When considering high risk varices (small with red wales or large varices), a liver stiffness < 20 kPa had 100% sensitivity. A platelet count > 150,000/l had a sensitivity of 84.6% and a specificity of 64.1%. Four patients with a platelet count (PLT) > 150,000/l had esophageal varices. When both criteria were applied to the patient cohort, according to the Baveno VI consensus, the sensitivity was 100% and the specificity, 61.5%.

In this study, the Baveno VI criteria had 100% sensitivity but a relatively low specificity for the non-invasive diagnosis of esophageal varices. In clinical practice, all patients with varices are identified but many patients have a subsequent negative endoscopy.