Risk factors and a prognostic model for postsplenectomy survival in myelofibrosis

Palliative treatment in myelofibrosis (MF) includes transfusion support, JAK2 inhibitors, involved field radiotherapy and splenectomy. To assist in selecting patients who are likely to benefit from splenectomy, we looked into risk factors for postsplenectomy survival, in 120 consecutive cases (median age 66 years); at the time of splenectomy, 61% displayed red cell transfusion need, 49% platelet count <100 × 10(9)/L, 25% leukocyte count >25 × 10(9)/L, 60% constitutional symptoms and 13% circulating blasts ≥5%; dynamic international prognostic scoring system risk categories were 21% high, 55% intermediate-2, 21% intermediate-1 and 3% low. Among informative cases, karyotype was abnormal in 60% and driver mutational status was JAK2 75%, CALR 15%, MPL 4% and triple-negative 6%. At median follow-up of 1.3 years, from time of splenectomy, 95 (79%) deaths and 30 (25%) leukemic transformations were recorded. Median postsplenectomy survival was 1.5 years; in multivariable analysis, survival was adversely affected by age >65 years, transfusion need, leukocyte count >25 × 10(9)/L and circulating blasts ≥5%; these variables were subsequently used to devise an HR-weighted scoring system with high (3-4 risk factors), intermediate (2 risk factors) and low (0-1 risk factors) risk categories; the corresponding postsplenectomy median survivals were 0.3 (HR 5.9, 95% CI 3.2-11.0), 1.3 (HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8-4.6) and 2.9 years. Postsplenectomy survival was not affected by driver mutational status or occurrence of leukemic transformation. Leukemia-free survival was predicted by very high risk karyotype. The observations from the current study might help identify appropriate candidates for splenectomy in MF.