A simple discharge risk model for predicting 1-year mortality in hospitalised acute decompansated heart failure...

The risk stratification for prognosis in heart failure is very important for optimal disease management and decision making. The aim of this study was to establish a simple discharge 1-year mortality prediction model by integrating data obtained from demographic characteristics, clinical evaluation, laboratory biomarkers and echocardiographic evaluation of hospitalised heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) patients with acute decompensation.

A risk score model was developed based on β-coefficient number of variables in a multivariable logistic regression model which was created with the use of data on clinical, laboratory, imaging and therapeutic findings of 670 patients (65.4% males, 65 ± 11 years) who was hospitalised with acute decompensated HFrEF. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 26 ± 9%. Independent predictors of mortality were: age ≥75 years, sodium <130 mEq/L, hepatomegaly at admission, unable to use beta-blocker at discharge and LVEF ≤20%. The 1-year mortality rate was 7.8% in the study population. The existence of each predictor was scored as 1 point and the discharge risk score identified patients into low (0-1 points), intermediate (2-3 points) and high (4-5 points) risk individuals with 3, 15.6 and 44.4% 1-year mortality rates, respectively. The model performance evaluated by concordance index was 0.74.

This simple discharge risk score model for hospitalised acute decompensated HFrEF patients using easily determined demographic characteristics, clinical signs, echocardiographic and laboratory data is a valuable and an easy risk assessment tool to use at point-of-care.