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Revisiting the Relationship Between Data, Models, and Decision-Making.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Hydrologists can improve water resource decisions by using multiple, rival models instead of single predictions. This approach, including stakeholder advocacy models, clarifies risks and promotes better scientific decision-making.

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Water Resource Management
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Traditional hydrological approaches often rely on single-model predictions with quantitative uncertainties.
  • Water resource decision-makers frequently utilize qualitative, multiple-narrative frameworks.
  • A gap exists between scientific modeling outputs and the needs of decision-makers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To advocate for a shift in hydrological practice towards supporting water resource decision-making more effectively.
  • To propose the development and use of rival model ensembles, including advocacy models.
  • To enhance the objective communication of risks to stakeholders.

Main Methods:

  • Developing ensembles of rival hydrological models.
  • Incorporating biased, advocacy models that represent stakeholder interests.
  • Analyzing the outcomes of using inclusive, multi-model approaches.

Main Results:

  • Rival model ensembles provide a clearer understanding of what is known, possible, and unknown in water resource systems.
  • Inclusive modeling platforms facilitate objective discussions about risks.
  • Stakeholder-inclusive models can lead to more appropriate applications of the scientific method.

Conclusions:

  • Adopting a multi-model, inclusive approach enhances the support hydrologists provide for water resource decisions.
  • The use of rival and advocacy models improves the clarity and relevance of scientific information for decision-makers.
  • This paradigm shift promotes more robust and scientifically grounded water resource management.