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Published on: May 31, 2018
Spatial disease dynamics of free-living pathogens under pathogen predation
Tommi Mononen1, Lasse Ruokolainen2
1University of Helsinki, Department of Biosciences, Helsinki, FI-00014, Finland. tommi.mononen@helsinki.fi.
Abstract:
The epidemiological dynamics of potentially free-living pathogens are often studied with respect to a specific pathogen species (e.g., cholera) and most studies concentrate only on host-pathogen interactions. Here we show that metacommunity-level interactions can alter conventional spatial disease dynamics. We introduce a pathogen eating consumer species and investigate a deterministic epidemiological model of two habitat patches, where both patches can be occupied by hosts, pathogens, and consumers of free-living pathogens. An isolated habitat patch shows periodic disease outbreaks in the host population, arising from cyclic consumer-pathogen dynamics. On the other hand, consumer dispersal between the patches generate asymmetric disease prevalence, such that the host population in one patch stays disease-free, while disease outbreaks occur in the other patch. Such asymmetry can also arise with host dispersal, where infected hosts carry pathogens to the other patch. This indirect movement of pathogens causes also a counter-intuitive effect: decreasing morbidity in a focal patch under increasing pathogen immigration. Our results underline that community-level interactions influence disease dynamics and consistent spatial asymmetry can arise also in spatially homogeneous systems.
Insights
Metacommunity interactions, including pathogen-consuming species, can significantly alter disease spread. Introducing consumers can lead to disease-free patches and unexpected decreases in host morbidity, even with pathogen immigration.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Epidemiology
- Theoretical Biology
Background:
- Traditional disease dynamics studies focus on host-pathogen interactions.
- The role of broader community interactions in spatial disease spread is often overlooked.
- Free-living pathogens and their consumers add complexity to ecological disease models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how metacommunity interactions influence spatial epidemiological dynamics.
- To model the effects of a pathogen-consuming species on host-pathogen systems in multiple habitat patches.
- To analyze the impact of consumer and host dispersal on disease prevalence and asymmetry.
Main Methods:
- Development of a deterministic epidemiological model.
- Simulation of two interconnected habitat patches containing hosts, pathogens, and pathogen consumers.
- Analysis of scenarios with isolated patches, consumer dispersal, and host dispersal.
Main Results:
- Isolated patches exhibit periodic disease outbreaks driven by consumer-pathogen cycles.
- Consumer dispersal between patches creates asymmetric disease prevalence, with one patch remaining disease-free.
- Host dispersal leads to indirect pathogen movement, causing a counter-intuitive decrease in morbidity with increased pathogen immigration.
Conclusions:
- Community-level interactions, particularly involving consumers, are critical drivers of spatial disease dynamics.
- Metacommunity processes can generate significant spatial asymmetry in disease prevalence, even in homogeneous environments.
- Understanding these complex interactions is essential for predicting and managing infectious diseases in ecological systems.
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