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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Climate Dynamics
  • Meteorology

Background:

  • Indian summer monsoon (ISM) exhibits intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) with active and break phases.
  • Recent decades show increased extreme rainfall events during quiescent (break) phases.
  • This coincides with decreasing mean monsoon rainfall and weakened low-frequency ISO (LF-ISO).

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate the physical link between increased extreme rainfall events and weakened LF-ISO.
  • Explain the paradox of increased extreme events alongside decreased mean monsoon rainfall.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of observational data.
  • Numerical model simulations of monsoon dynamics.

Main Results:

  • Extreme rainfall events in monsoon breaks stabilize the atmosphere.
  • This atmospheric stabilization reduces the intensity of the subsequent active phase.
  • Observed reduction in vertical wind shear and increased static stability during break-to-active transitions.

Conclusions:

  • Extreme rainfall events during monsoon breaks suppress the following active phase intensity.
  • This mechanism weakens LF-ISO and reduces mean ISM rainfall.
  • Provides a physical explanation for the observed monsoon paradox.