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Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

Majeed Abimbola1, Faisal Khan1

  • 1Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|August 12, 2017
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a dynamic risk analysis method to address the limitations of static approaches in drilling operations. It enables real-time risk assessment by incorporating evolving conditions, crucial for preventing blowouts.

Keywords:
Blowout risk analysisbottom-hole pressuredynamic risk analysisequivalent circulating densityloss functions

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Area of Science:

  • Petroleum Engineering
  • Risk Management
  • Drilling Operations

Background:

  • Static risk analysis methods are inadequate for dynamic drilling operations.
  • Blowouts are complex, evolving events that pose significant risks.
  • Traditional methods fail to support real-time decision-making during drilling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a dynamic risk analysis approach for drilling operations.
  • To model evolving risks using dynamic probability and consequence functions.
  • To enable real-time operational risk assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Developed dynamic consequence models using loss functions.
  • Integrated dynamic models with probability for real-time risk estimation.
  • Considered bottom-hole pressure changes as a key evolving factor.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated a novel dynamic risk analysis methodology.
  • Successfully applied the models to an offshore drilling case study.
  • Showcased the ability to capture evolving operational situations.

Conclusions:

  • Dynamic risk analysis is essential for managing complex drilling operations.
  • The proposed method enhances safety by providing real-time risk insights.
  • This approach improves decision-making during evolving drilling scenarios, particularly for blowout prevention.