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Possible windborne spread of myxomatosis to England in 1953
Abstract:
An analysis of the meterological conditions showed that the first outbreaks of myxomatosis in S.E. England in 1953 could have resulted from wind carriage of insects infected with myxoma virus from northern France. South-easterly winds on the night 11-12 August would have carried the insects 120-160 km from the Départements of Nord, Pas de Calais and Somme across the English Channel to near Edenbridge, Kent. The flight would have taken 6.5-8.5 h at wind speeds of 15-22 km h-1. On the night 11-12 August, temperatures increased with height (inversion) up to 500 m; at ground level temperature was around 19 degrees C and at 500 m was 25 degrees C. Insects would have travelled up to the top of the inversion arriving on 12 August as the inversion declined. Two or possibly three generations of infection would have taken place before the disease was seen around the middle of September 1953. The most likely insect was the mosquito Anopheles atroparvus which breeds along the coastal marshes of England and northern France and which has been shown experimentally and in the field to transmit myxoma virus mechanically.
Insights
Myxomatosis outbreaks in England were likely caused by wind-borne, virus-infected mosquitoes from France. Meteorological analysis suggests Anopheles atroparvus mosquitoes traveled across the English Channel in August 1953, leading to disease spread.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Entomology
- Epidemiology
- Meteorology
Background:
- Myxomatosis outbreaks in Southeast England in 1953 posed a significant threat to rabbit populations.
- The precise origin and initial transmission vector of the 1953 myxomatosis epidemic remained unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the potential role of meteorological conditions in the initial introduction of myxomatosis into Southeast England.
- To identify the likely vector and geographical origin of the myxoma virus responsible for the 1953 outbreak.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of meteorological data, including wind direction, speed, and temperature inversions, for August 1953.
- Modeling insect flight capabilities and potential displacement distances based on prevailing weather patterns.
- Identification of potential insect vectors with known virus transmission capabilities and geographical distribution.
Main Results:
- South-easterly winds on August 11-12, 1953, could have transported infected insects 120-160 km from Northern France to Kent, England.
- Favorable temperature inversions allowed for insect survival and transport up to 500 meters.
- The mosquito Anopheles atroparvus, capable of mechanical transmission, was identified as the most probable vector.
Conclusions:
- Wind carriage of infected Anopheles atroparvus mosquitoes from Northern France is a plausible explanation for the introduction of myxomatosis into Southeast England in 1953.
- Subsequent generations of infection likely occurred before the disease was clinically observed in mid-September 1953.