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Related Concept Videos

Brain Imaging01:14

Brain Imaging

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Brain imaging technologies provide critical insights into both the structure and function of the human brain, enabling medical professionals and researchers to diagnose, study, and treat neurological disorders or psychiatric disorders more effectively.
These technologies include computerized axial tomography (CAT or CT scans), positron-emission tomography (PET scans),  magnetic resonance imaging (MRI),  functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and Transcranial Magnetic...
787

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When Brain Beats Behavior: Neuroforecasting Crowdfunding Outcomes.

Alexander Genevsky1,2, Carolyn Yoon3, Brian Knutson4

  • 1Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

The Journal of Neuroscience : the Official Journal of the Society for Neuroscience
|August 20, 2017
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Summary

Neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) can predict crowdfunding success weeks in advance, outperforming traditional behavioral measures. This brain signal offers a novel way to forecast market-level outcomes.

Keywords:
accumbensfMRIforecastingfrontalhumanprediction

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Area of Science:

  • Neuroeconomics
  • Computational Social Science
  • Decision Neuroscience

Background:

  • Traditional economic and psychological models assume individual choices aggregate predictably.
  • Forecasting aggregate behavior using individual neural data has been challenging.
  • Crowdfunding is a growing market for funding diverse projects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if neural activity can predict market-level crowdfunding outcomes.
  • To compare the predictive power of neural versus behavioral measures for crowdfunding success.

Main Methods:

  • Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to scan 30 subjects deciding whether to fund crowdfunding projects.
  • Neural activity in regions like the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) and medial prefrontal cortex was analyzed.
  • Behavioral funding choices and subsequent market funding outcomes were recorded and compared.

Main Results:

  • Nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activity predicted individual funding choices and, crucially, generalized to forecast market-level crowdfunding outcomes.
  • Medial prefrontal cortex activity predicted individual choices but not market outcomes.
  • Behavioral measures from the neuroimaging sample did not predict market funding outcomes, unlike NAcc activity.

Conclusions:

  • Neural activity, specifically in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc), can forecast aggregate market behavior in crowdfunding.
  • Neural predictors of individual choice can generalize to predict market-level outcomes, surpassing behavioral measures.
  • Findings highlight the potential of neuroscientific data for informing business and policy applications in market forecasting.