Natural Hazard Susceptibility Assessment for Road Planning Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

Area of Science:

• Geosciences and Environmental Planning
• Spatial Analysis and Risk Assessment

Background:

• Inadequate infrastructure networks face significant risks from natural hazards, leading to transport disruptions.
• Proactive identification of natural hazard susceptible areas is crucial for long-term infrastructure planning and damage reduction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the utility of expert judgments in natural hazard susceptibility assessment.
• To apply a spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) approach integrating hydrological, geological, and land use factors.

Main Methods:

• Employed an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate expert judgments individually and aggregated.
• Utilized spatial multi-criteria analysis for decision support in hazard assessment.
• Compared SMCA results with weighted linear combination (equal weights) and factor interaction methods.

Main Results:

• Inundation was identified as the area with the highest susceptibility.
• Expert judgment-based assessment showed comparable results to equal weighting, with a 4% difference for inundation.
• Downscaling techniques were found to potentially yield misleading susceptibility assessments.

Conclusions:

• Spatial multi-criteria analysis is a valuable tool for supporting early-stage road planning regarding natural hazards.
• SMCA can highlight areas requiring further investigation and pinpoint high-risk zones along existing roads for targeted mitigation.