Risk Factors for Fractures Identified in the Algorithm Developed in 5-Year Follow-Up of Postmenopausal Women From...

The aim of the study was to establish factors with an impact on fracture risk and to develop an algorithm to predict osteoporotic fracture. A total of 978 postmenopausal women from the epidemiological, population-based RAC-OST-POL study with a mean age of 65.7 ± 7.3 years were enrolled. At baseline, bone mineral density at hip and clinical risk factors for fracture were collected. Afterward, each person was asked annually on fracture incidence in the 5-year follow-up. Finally, data for complete 5-year observation were gathered for the group of 802 patients. During the follow-up, 92 osteoporotic fractures occurred in 78 women. The most common fracture site was the forearm (n = 45). The following baseline factors were found as significant for fracture incidence: femoral neck bone mineral density, prior fractures, steroid use, falls within previous 12 months, and height. Fracture risk was predicted by the following formula: Riskoffractureincidence=11+e^{-(-9.899+1.077∗STEROIDS+0.681∗PRIORFALLS+0.611∗PRIORFRACTURES-0.483∗FNTscore+0.042∗HEIGHT)}. In our current longitudinal study, an algorithm predicting fracture occurrence over a period of 5 years was developed. It may find application in daily medical practice.