The relationship between emergency department volume and patient complexity

Area of Science:

• Emergency Medicine
• Healthcare Operations Research
• Health Services Research

Background:

• Forecasting emergency department (ED) visits is crucial for effective staffing and resource allocation.
• Previous studies often used triage status to assess patient severity, but this study explores a novel approach.
• Understanding patient volume complexity is key to optimizing medical and ancillary staffing.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the correlation between daily ED patient complexity, defined by Current Procedure Terminology (CPT) codes, and the day of the week.
• To investigate the relationship between ED patient complexity and legal holidays.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of ED visits from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2015.
• Correlation analysis of CPT codes with the day of the week, including days surrounding legal holidays.

Main Results:

• Analysis included 648,898 patient visits (48% male, 52% female).
• No statistically significant correlation was found between daily ED patient complexity (CPT codes) and the day of the week (p=0.75).
• No correlation was identified between ED patient complexity and legal holidays; however, individual CPT codes showed variations on specific days or holidays without clear patterns.

Conclusions:

• Daily ED patient complexity, based on CPT codes, does not correlate with the day of the week or legal holidays.
• Current emergency department staffing and resource allocation models may require reassessment in light of these findings.