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Prediction of BMI at age 11 in a longitudinal sample of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study

Hanna Christiansen1, Stephanie Brandt2, Viola Walter3

  • 1Department of Clinical Child and Adolescent Psychology and Psychotherapy, Philipps University, Marburg, Germany.

Plos One
|August 24, 2017
PubMed

Insights

Childhood obesity is a major health issue. This study found that a child's body mass index (BMI) at age 8 strongly predicts their BMI at age 11, indicating early intervention is crucial.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatrics
  • Public Health
  • Developmental Psychology

Background:

  • Childhood obesity presents a significant global health challenge, with prevalence rates ranging from 20-26% and associated health risks.
  • Longitudinal studies are essential for understanding the developmental trajectories of obesity and identifying predictive factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze 11-year follow-up data from the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS).
  • To determine if abnormal eating behaviors, particularly restrained eating, predict body mass index (BMI) at age 11.
  • To explore other longitudinally associated factors influencing childhood BMI.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from 422 children and their parents from the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS) 11-year follow-up.
  • Assessed body mass index (BMI) at ages 8 and 11.
  • Collected data on restrained eating, psychological issues, depressive symptoms, lifestyle, and IQ at age 8.
  • Employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to predict BMI at age 11.

Main Results:

  • Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) explained 68% of the variance in BMI at age 11.
  • Body mass index (BMI) at age 8 was the most significant predictor of BMI at age 11.
  • Restrained eating showed weak associations with BMI at age 11, mediated by BMI at age 8 and parental BMI.
  • No other assessed predictors (psychological problems, depressive symptoms, lifestyle, IQ) were statistically significant.

Conclusions:

  • Established overweight status in early childhood (age 8) is a strong longitudinal predictor of body mass index (BMI) at age 11.
  • Early childhood obesity interventions are recommended due to the predictive nature of early BMI.
  • Targeting early signs of overweight is critical for long-term obesity prevention strategies.

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