[Foundation of preoperative prognosis estimation model for glioblastoma multiforme]

Objective: This study explored the preoperative prognostic factors of patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) in order to propose a preoperative prognosis estimation model. Methods: The clinical data of 416 patients diagnosed with GBM in Beijing Tiantan Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical University from 2008 to 2015 were retrospectively reviewed.A total of nine factors: gender, age, duration of symptoms, preoperative epilepsy, preoperative muscle weakness, preoperative headache, preoperative KPS score, tumor location and tumor diameter were enrolled in the survival analysis.The significant factors identified by Kaplan-Meier plot were further collected in the multivariate Cox regression analysis.On the basis of multivariate analysis results, a preoperative prognosis estimation model was founded. Results: Univariate analysis showed that Age ≥50 years, without preoperative epilepsy, tumor located in non-frontotemporal lobe, tumor diameter ≥6 cm and preoperative KPS score <70 were prognostic risk factors (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed that Age ≥50 years, without preoperative epilepsy, tumor located in non-frontotemporal lobe were independent risk factors (P<0.05). The prognostic estimation model based on the independent risk factors divided the whole cohort into three subgroups with different survival (P<0.001). Conclusions: The more risk factors, the higher score but poorer prognosis. Patients in the high-risk group had lower gross total resection degree but higher rate of postoperative complications, which suggested that aggressive resection was not suitable for high-risk patients.