Evaluation of Sampling Recommendations From the Influenza Virologic Surveillance Right Size Roadmap for Idaho

The Right Size Roadmap was developed by the Association of Public Health Laboratories and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to improve influenza virologic surveillance efficiency. Guidelines were provided to state health departments regarding representativeness and statistical estimates of specimen numbers needed for seasonal influenza situational awareness, rare or novel influenza virus detection, and rare or novel influenza virus investigation.

The aim of this study was to compare Roadmap sampling recommendations with Idaho's influenza virologic surveillance to determine implementation feasibility.

We calculated the proportion of medically attended influenza-like illness (MA-ILI) from Idaho's influenza-like illness surveillance among outpatients during October 2008 to May 2014, applied data to Roadmap-provided sample size calculators, and compared calculations with actual numbers of specimens tested for influenza by the Idaho Bureau of Laboratories (IBL). We assessed representativeness among patients' tested specimens to census estimates by age, sex, and health district residence.

Among outpatients surveilled, Idaho's mean annual proportion of MA-ILI was 2.30% (20,834/905,818) during a 5-year period. Thus, according to Roadmap recommendations, Idaho needs to collect 128 specimens from MA-ILI patients/week for situational awareness, 1496 influenza-positive specimens/week for detection of a rare or novel influenza virus at 0.2% prevalence, and after detection, 478 specimens/week to confirm true prevalence is ≤2% of influenza-positive samples. The mean number of respiratory specimens Idaho tested for influenza/week, excluding the 2009-2010 influenza season, ranged from 6 to 24. Various influenza virus types and subtypes were collected and specimen submission sources were representative in terms of geographic distribution, patient age range and sex, and disease severity.

Insufficient numbers of respiratory specimens are submitted to IBL for influenza laboratory testing. Increased specimen submission would facilitate meeting Roadmap sample size recommendations.