Evolutionary games, climate and the generation of diversity

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Ecology
• Game theory

Background:

• Evolutionary game theory explains species diversity.
• Environmental stochasticity and climate impact evolutionary game outcomes.
• Side-blotched lizards exhibit complex population dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• Estimate replicator dynamics for side-blotched lizards.
• Investigate climate and density effects on morph frequency.
• Explain observed population oscillations and diversity patterns.

Main Methods:

• Utilized maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for replicator dynamics.
• Analyzed morph frequency data from control and perturbed populations over 14-25 years.
• Developed a 3x3 payoff matrix for generalized Rock-Paper-Scissors dynamics.

Main Results:

• Identified significant interactive effects of density and temperature on morph frequency.
• Recovered 4-5 year population oscillations driven by frequency-dependent selection.
• Demonstrated climate entrainment of population cycles across populations.

Conclusions:

• Climate significantly influences evolutionary game dynamics and population cycles in side-blotched lizards.
• Climate accounts for morph fixation and mating system diversity.
• Climate change may impact broader ecosystem diversity.