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Related Experiment Videos

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

Perry C Oddo1, Ben S Lee2, Gregory G Garner3

  • 1Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 6, 2017
PubMed
Summary

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This summary is machine-generated.

Rising sea levels threaten coastal areas. This study uses a multiobjective model to balance adaptation costs and flood damages, revealing critical uncertainties for better flood risk management.

Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Climate change adaptation
  • Decision analysis

Background:

  • Global sea levels are rising, increasing flood risks for coastal communities and infrastructure.
  • Existing flood risk management strategies often overlook crucial uncertainties and tradeoffs between competing objectives.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To adapt a classic decision-analytical model to address tradeoffs in stakeholder objectives.
  • To demonstrate the impact of structural uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge models.
  • To identify key parametric uncertainties influencing flood adaptation decisions using global sensitivity analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Implementation and enhancement of the Van Dantzig (1956) decision-analytical model.
  • Incorporation of multiobjective optimization to capture conflicting stakeholder preferences.
Keywords:
Deep uncertaintyflood adaptationglobal sensitivity analysismany-objective decision makingstorm surge

Related Experiment Videos

  • Application of global sensitivity analysis to assess parameter influence and interactions.

    • Main Results:

    • Traditional single-objective flood adaptation models may yield myopic solutions.
    • Multiobjective formulation significantly expands the decision space, necessitating compromise solutions.
    • Structural uncertainties, particularly in storm surge parameters, profoundly impact model outcomes.

    Conclusions:

    • Multiobjective decision-making is essential for effective flood adaptation planning.
    • Sensitivity analysis is crucial for identifying critical uncertainties and parameter interactions.
    • Addressing deep structural uncertainties is vital for robust coastal flood risk management strategies.