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Group polarization is the strengthening of an original group attitude following the discussion of views within a group (Teger & Pruitt, 1967). That is, if a group initially favors a viewpoint, after discussion the group consensus is likely a stronger endorsement of the viewpoint. Conversely, if the group was initially opposed to a viewpoint, group discussion would likely lead to stronger opposition.
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Modelling radicalization: how small violent fringe sects develop into large indoctrinated societies.

Martin B Short1, Scott G McCalla2, Maria R D'Orsogna3,4

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA.

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|September 8, 2017
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study models societal radicalization dynamics between competing groups. It reveals how resource allocation between indoctrination and violence influences group growth and inter-group conflict outcomes.

Keywords:
dynamical systemsgame theorymodelling social behaviour

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Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Political Science
  • Game Theory

Background:

  • Societies often comprise competing religious, ethnic, or political groups.
  • These groups can contain both moderate and radical factions with internal dynamics.
  • Inter-group conflict and radicalization are complex phenomena influenced by various factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model and analyze the dynamics of radicalization within and between competing societal groups.
  • To investigate the strategic decision-making of radical factions regarding indoctrination and inter-group violence.
  • To explore how group asymmetry (population, resources) affects radicalization pathways.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a game theoretic model to simulate sect dynamics.
  • Incorporated intra-group transitions (spontaneous, indoctrination) and inter-group attacks.
  • Modeled coupled dynamics where one group's actions influence the other's transition rates.
  • Assumed radical factions optimize utility functions under resource constraints.

Main Results:

  • Identified conditions under which groups prioritize indoctrination over violence, or vice versa.
  • Demonstrated how sects can strategically reallocate resources to influence their growth.
  • Showed that small, violent sects can evolve into large, indoctrinated communities through strategic adaptation.
  • Highlighted the impact of group asymmetry on radicalization trajectories.

Conclusions:

  • Strategic resource allocation is a key driver in radicalization and group escalation.
  • Inter-group dynamics and strategic interactions significantly shape societal radicalization.
  • The model provides insights into the conditions fostering the growth of radical ideologies and communities.