Liver stiffness measurement predicts liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis C: A retrospective study

The management of patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) depends on their clinical stage. Thus, noninvasive early recognition of patients with CHC at high risk for developing liver-related events (LREs) is important because it ensures optimal preventative management strategies may be employed that can affect the course of CHC disease. Our aim was to determine whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients is associated with a risk of LREs, particularly in cirrhotic patients. We carried out a retrospective study on 343 HCV-infected patients stratified according to cirrhosis (LSM<12.5 kPa vs. LSM≥12.5 kPa), and the cirrhotic patient group (LSM≥12.5 kPa) was divided according to risk of esophageal varices (LSM <25 kPa vs. LSM≥25 kPa). For all patients, each incremental unit in the natural logarithm (Ln) of LSM was associated with 14.76 times higher risk of developing LREs (p<0.001). Patients with cirrhosis (LSM≥12.5 kPa) had a higher risk of LREs than patients without cirrhosis (LSM<12.5 kPa) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 30.97; p<0.001]. When only cirrhotic patients were analyzed (n = 60), each incremental unit in the Ln of LSM was associated with 10.56 times higher risk of developing LREs (p = 0.010). Patients with LSM≥25 kPa had a greater risk for LRE development compared to those with LSM<25 kPa (aHR = 3.65; p = 0.045). The AUROC for predicting the onset of LREs was 0.876 in all patients and 0.729 in cirrhotic patients. In conclusion, LSM was associated with an increased risk of developing LREs in HCV-infected patients, even within the group of cirrhotic patients.