CO₂ evasion from boreal lakes: Revised estimate, drivers of spatial variability, and future projections

Lakes (including reservoirs) are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle, as acknowledged by the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. In the context of lakes, the boreal region is disproportionately important contributing to 27% of the worldwide lake area, despite representing just 14% of global land surface area. In this study, we used a statistical approach to derive a prediction equation for the partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂ ) in lakes as a function of lake area, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and precipitation (r²  = .56), and to create the first high-resolution, circumboreal map (0.5°) of lake pCO₂ . The map of pCO₂ was combined with lake area from the recently published GLOWABO database and three different estimates of the gas transfer velocity k to produce a resulting map of CO₂ evasion (FCO₂ ). For the boreal region, we estimate an average, lake area weighted, pCO₂ of 966 (678-1,325) μatm and a total FCO₂ of 189 (74-347) Tg C year^-1 , and evaluate the corresponding uncertainties based on Monte Carlo simulation. Our estimate of FCO₂ is approximately twofold greater than previous estimates, as a result of methodological and data source differences. We use our results along with published estimates of the other C fluxes through inland waters to derive a C budget for the boreal region, and find that FCO₂ from lakes is the most significant flux of the land-ocean aquatic continuum, and of a similar magnitude as emissions from forest fires. Using the model and applying it to spatially resolved projections of terrestrial NPP and precipitation while keeping everything else constant, we predict a 107% increase in boreal lake FCO₂ under emission scenario RCP8.5 by 2100. Our projections are largely driven by increases in terrestrial NPP over the same period, showing the very close connection between the terrestrial and aquatic C cycle.