Related Experiment Video
Updated: Feb 23, 2026

Developing a Virtual Reality Video Game to Simulate Rip Currents
Published on: July 16, 2020
The sinking of the El Faro: predicting real world rogue waves during Hurricane Joaquin
Francesco Fedele1, Claudio Lugni2,3, Arun Chawla4
1School of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, 30332, USA. fedele@gatech.edu.
Abstract:
We present a study on the prediction of rogue waves during the 1-hour sea state of Hurricane Joaquin when the Merchant Vessel El Faro sank east of the Bahamas on October 1, 2015. High-resolution hindcast of hurricane-generated sea states and wave simulations are combined with novel probabilistic models to quantify the likelihood of rogue wave conditions. The data suggests that the El Faro vessel was drifting at an average speed of approximately 2.5 m/s prior to its sinking. As a result, we estimated that the probability that El Faro encounters a rogue wave whose crest height exceeds 14 meters while drifting over a time interval of 10 (50) minutes is ~1/400 (1/130). The largest simulated wave is generated by the constructive interference of elementary spectral components (linear dispersive focusing) enhanced by bound nonlinearities. Not surprisingly then, its characteristics are quite similar to those displayed by the Andrea, Draupner and Killard rogue waves.
Related Concept Videos
Propagation of Waves
Consider a scenario where a wave propagates from a string of low linear mass density to a string of high linear mass density. In such a case, the reflected wave is out of phase with respect to the incident wave, however the...
Shock Waves
When the source's speed approaches the speed of sound, constructive interference between successive wavefronts emitted by the source occurs immediately behind it. Initially, scientists believed that this constructive interference would result in such high...
Coriolis Force
Buoyancy and Stability for Submerged and Floating Bodies
Reflection of Waves
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment

