Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever

Area of Science:

• Geriatric Medicine
• Infectious Diseases
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Geriatric patients face high mortality rates from dengue fever (DF).
• Existing methods for predicting mortality in elderly DF patients are inadequate.
• A predictive tool is needed to improve clinical decision-making for this vulnerable population.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive tool for mortality in geriatric dengue fever patients.
• To identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality in elderly DF patients.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective case-control study involving 627 geriatric DF patients during a 2015 Taiwan outbreak.
• Data collected included demographics, vital signs, symptoms, comorbidities, living status, and laboratory results.
• Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify mortality predictors.

Main Results:

• The overall mortality rate was 4.3% (27 deaths).
• Four independent predictors of mortality were identified: severe coma (Glasgow Coma Scale ≤8), bedridden status, severe hepatitis (AST >1000 U/L), and renal failure (serum creatinine >2 mg/dL).
• Patients with two or more predictors had a 57.14% mortality rate, while those with none had a 98.51% survival rate.

Conclusions:

• A simple, effective tool was developed to predict mortality in geriatric DF patients.
• The tool incorporates severe coma, bedridden status, severe hepatitis, and renal failure.
• This method can aid clinical decision-making and resource allocation, particularly during DF outbreaks.