The problem of identifying arsenic anomalies in the basin of Sahand dam through risk-based 'soft modelling'

An investigation is undertaken to identify arsenic anomalies at the complex of Sahand dam, East Azerbaijan, northwest Iran. The complex acts as a system, in which the impounding reservoir catalyses system components related to Origin-Source-Pathways-Receptor-Consequence (OSPRC) viewed as a risk system. This 'conceptual framework' overlays a 'perceptual model' of the physical system, in which arsenic with geogenic origins diffused into the formations through extensive fractures swept through the region during the Miocene era. Impacts of arsenic anomalies were local until the provision of the impounding reservoir in the last 10years, which transformed it into active system-wide risk exposures. The paper uses existing technique of: statistical, graphical, multivariate analysis, geological survey and isotopic study, but these often seem ad hoc and without common knowledgebase. Risk analysis approaches are sought to treat existing fragmentation in practices of identifying and mitigating arsenic anomalies. The paper contributes towards next generation best practice through: (i) transferring and extending knowledge on the OSPRC framework; (ii) introducing 'OSPRC cells' to capture unique idiosyncrasies at each cell; and (iii) suggesting a 'soft modelling' procedure based on assembling knowledgebase of existing techniques with partially converging and partially diverging information levels, where knowledgebase invokes model equations with increasing resolutions. The data samples from the study area for the period of 2002-12 supports the study and indicates the following 'risk cells' for the study area: (i) local arsenic risk exposures at south of the reservoir, (ii) system-wide arsenic risks at its north; and (iii) system-wide arsenic risk exposures within the reservoir even after dilution.