Development of a Predictive Score for Discharge Disposition After Lumbar Fusion Using the Quality Outcomes Database

Lumbar fusion remains the treatment of choice for many degenerative pathologies. Healthcare costs related to the procedure are a concern, and postdischarge needs often contribute to greater expenditure. The Quality Outcomes Database (QOD) is a prospective, multicenter clinical registry designed to analyze outcomes after neurosurgical procedures.

To create a simple scoring system to predict discharge needs after lumbar fusion.

Institutional QOD data from 2 high-volume neurosurgical centers were collected retrospectively. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors for our model. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to set cutoff scores for patients likely to discharge home without ongoing services and those likely to require additional services/alternative placement after discharge.

Two hundred seventeen patients were included. Five variables-osteoporosis, predominant preoperative symptom, need for assistive ambulation device, American Society of Anesthesiologist grade, and age-were included in our final scoring system. Patients with higher scores are less likely to need additional services. In patients with high scores (8-10), our scale correctly predicted discharge needs in 88.7% of cases. In patients with low scores (0-5), our scale predicted discharge needs (additional home services/alternative placement) in 75% of cases. For our final instrument, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.809 (95% confidence interval 0.720-0.897).

We present a simple scoring system to assist in predicting postdischarge needs for patients undergoing lumbar fusion for degenerative disease. Further validation studies are needed to assess the generalizability of our scale.