The impact of long-term oceanic warming on the Antarctic Oscillation in austral winter

Increasing greenhouse gas concentration and ozone depletion are generally considered two important factors that affect the variability of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Here, we find that the first leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability (rotated empirical orthogonal functions) shows a long-term upward trend from 1901 to 2004 and is closely related to the AAO index that is obtained using the observationally constrained reanalysis data. Further, regressions of the sea level pressure and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, against the principle component associated with the long-term SST anomalies, display a seesaw behavior between the middle and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in austral winter, which is similar to the high polarity of the AAO. The circulation responses to the long-term oceanic warming in three numerical models are consistent with the observed results. This finding suggests that the long-term oceanic warming is partly responsible for the upward trend of the AAO in austral winter. The thermal wind response to the oceanic warming in South Indian and South Atlantic Ocean may be a possible mechanism for this process.