Risk prediction tools for keratinocyte carcinoma after solid organ transplantation: a review of the literature

Long-term iatrogenic immunosuppression increases the risk of cutaneous malignancies in organ transplant recipients (OTRs), particularly the keratinocyte cancers basal cell carcinoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC). cSCC is the most common malignancy in OTRs, with the risk increased to over 65-fold in transplanted patients relative to the general population. There have been very few risk prediction tools developed for accurate determination of the risk of developing keratinocyte cancers in the OTR population. This review summarizes the prediction tools developed to date, and outlines future directions for developing more accurate prediction models that are clinically useful for the transplant physician and dermatologist.