Learning and forgetting in the jet fighter aircraft industry

Area of Science:

• Aerospace Engineering
• Manufacturing Economics
• Defense Industry Analysis

Background:

• Aircraft manufacturers are developing single airframes for multiple fighter jet variants to reduce R&D costs.
• This strategy aims to lower the final unit price per aircraft, as seen with the F-35 Lightning II program.
• The impact of this cost-saving strategy on production expenses requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the effect of a common airframe strategy on aircraft production costs.
• To investigate the relationship between airframe commonality and learning curve acquisition in fighter jet manufacturing.
• To determine the overall impact on the final unit price of next-generation fighter aircraft.

Main Methods:

• Estimation of learning curves based on flyaway costs for three fighter aircraft models: F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, F-22A Raptor, and F-35A Lightning II.
• Comparative analysis of learning rates across different fighter jet programs utilizing common airframe strategies.
• Economic modeling to assess the influence of reduced learning acquisition on production costs.

Main Results:

• The F-35A Lightning II exhibits significantly lower learning rates (approximately 9%) compared to the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-22A Raptor (approximately 14%).
• A single airframe strategy can lead to increased production costs due to diminished learning acquisition.
• The overall effect on the final unit price of aircraft developed under this strategy remains indeterminate.

Conclusions:

• The strategy of using a single airframe for multiple fighter variants may inadvertently raise production costs by limiting learning.
• Reduced learning acquisition can offset initial R&D savings, making the final unit cost unpredictable.
• Further research is needed to fully understand the long-term economic implications of common airframe strategies in defense manufacturing.