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Surrogate for oropharyngeal cancer HPV status in cancer database studies
Uchechukwu C Megwalu1, Michelle M Chen1, Yifei Ma1
1Department of Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.
Background:
The utility of cancer databases for oropharyngeal cancer studies is limited by lack of information on human papillomavirus (HPV) status. The purpose of this study was to develop a surrogate that can be used to adjust for the effect of HPV status on survival.
Methods:
The study cohort included 6419 patients diagnosed with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma between 2004 and 2012, identified in the National Cancer Database (NCDB). The HPV surrogate score was developed using a logistic regression model predicting HPV-positive status.
Results:
The HPV surrogate score was predictive of HPV status (area under the curve [AUC] 0.73; accuracy of 70.4%). Similar to HPV-positive tumors, HPV surrogate positive tumors were associated with improved overall survival (OS; hazard ratio [HR] 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.91; P = .005), after adjusting for important covariates.
Conclusion:
The HPV surrogate score is useful for adjusting for the effect of HPV status on survival in studies utilizing cancer databases.
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