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Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study

Alexandra B Hogan1, Patricia T Campbell2, Christopher C Blyth3

  • 1Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, 62 Mills Rd, The Australian National University, Acton ACT 2601, Australia.

Vaccine
|October 3, 2017
PubMed

Insights

A maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine could significantly reduce infant hospitalizations. This vaccine strategy aims to protect young children from severe RSV disease by delaying infection to an age with lower risk.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Vaccinology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of severe respiratory illness and hospitalization in infants.
  • Currently, no licensed vaccine for RSV exists, but a maternal vaccine candidate is in Phase 3 trials.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission.
  • To assess the potential impact of a maternal RSV vaccine on infant hospitalizations.

Main Methods:

  • A compartmental age-structured model was created to simulate RSV transmission dynamics.
  • The model was validated using laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalization data from Western Australia.
  • The model was adapted to include a maternal RSV vaccine to estimate hospitalization reductions.

Main Results:

  • A maternal RSV vaccine could reduce hospitalizations by 6-37% in 0-2 month olds and 30-46% in 3-5 month olds.
  • Effectiveness varied based on vaccine efficacy levels.
  • The model projected significant reductions across a range of vaccine effectiveness scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • A maternal RSV vaccine program shows promise for reducing infant hospitalizations.
  • The strategy is effective in delaying infant RSV infection to an age with reduced risk of severe disease.
  • Maternal vaccination could be a key public health intervention for pediatric RSV prevention.

Keywords:
Maternal vaccineMathematical modelRSVRespiratory syncytial virusVaccine model

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