The effect of taxation and regulation on cigarette smoking: Fresh evidence from Turkey

Enacting Law No 5247 in May 2008, Turkey has initiated crucial anti-tobacco policies in the last decade. This paper aims to reveal on the effect of anti-tobacco policies such as excise taxes and regulations on cigarette smoking. To this aim, I empirically investigate the long-term dynamics of demand for cigarettes in Turkey through the OLS estimation strategy under various scenarios and models. Using monthly and quarterly data that cover the pre- and post- anti-smoking policy periods, I estimate demand elasticities and compare the pre- and post- taxation and regulation terms. The results presented in the paper confirm that taxation and regulation have affected the long-term dynamics of demand for cigarettes. The price and income elasticities of demand for cigarettes are significantly higher than the previous literature on Turkey. Demand elasticities have increased on average in the anti-tobacco policies period.