Emission Standards, Public Transit, and Infant Health

Transit buses are an integral part of urban life. They reduce externalities generated from private vehicles and increase geographic mobility. However, unlike most private vehicles in the United States, they use diesel fuel and emit higher amounts of toxic pollutants. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency set emission standards for transit buses starting in 1988 that have been continually updated, but their public health and economic impacts are unclear due to scarce emissions data. I construct a novel panel dataset for the New York City (NYC) Transit bus fleet between 1990 and 2009 and examine the impact of bus pollution on infant health by using bus vintage as a proxy for emissions. I exploit the variation in vintage as older buses are retired and replaced with newer, lower-emitting buses forced to adhere to stricter emission standards. I then assign maternal exposure to bus vintage at the census block level. Findings suggest that maternal exposure to the oldest, unregulated buses is associated with modest reductions in birth weight and gestational age relative to newer buses that abide by emissions policies. I then conduct a back-of-the-envelope cost-benefit calculation and find net economic benefits of $53.3 million resulting from improved emission standards for the 2009 birth cohort in NYC. Since the treatment in this study clearly maps to federal emissions policies, these results are the first to provide credible evidence that transit bus emission standards had a positive effect on infant health.