Pre-vaccine serotype composition within a lineage signposts its serotype replacement - a carriage study over 7 years...

Serotype replacement has been reported in carriage and disease after pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introductions in the UK and globally. We previously described concurrent expansion and decline of sequence types associated with serotype replacement over 5 years following PCV introductions in the UK. Here we use whole-genome sequencing to fully characterise the population structure of pneumococcal isolates collected over seven winters encompassing PCV7 and PCV13 introductions in the UK, investigating the importance of lineages in serotype replacement. We analysed 672 pneumococcal genomes from colonised children of 4 years old or less. The temporal prevalence of 20 lineages, defined by hierarchical Bayesian analysis of population structure (BAPS), was assessed in the context of serotype replacement. Multiple serotypes were detected in the primary winter of sampling within three vaccine-type (VT) lineages BAPS4, BAPS10 and BAPS11, in which serotype replacement were observed. In contrast, serotype replacement was not seen in the remaining three VT lineages (BAPS1, BAPS13 and BAPS14), that expressed a single serotype (6B, 6A and 3, respectively) in the primary winter. One lineage, BAPS1 serotype 6B was undetectable in the population towards the end of the study period. The dynamics of serotype replacement, in this UK population, was preceded by the presence or absence of multiple serotypes within VT lineages, in the pre-PCV population. This observation could help predict which non-vaccine types (NVTs) may be involved in replacement in future PCV introductions here and elsewhere. It could further indicate whether any antibiotic resistance associated with the lineages is likely to be affected by replacement.