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Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination
Joshua O Yukich1, Nakul Chitnis2,3
1Center for Applied Malaria Research and Evaluation, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, 1440 Canal St. 8317, New Orleans, LA, 70112, USA.
Malaria Journal
|October 15, 2017
Summary
Scaling back malaria vector control risks resurgence unless transmission is very low, elimination is achieved, and strong surveillance is in place. Careful risk assessment is crucial before reducing interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health Interventions
Background:
- Global malaria vector control has reduced disease burden.
- High recurrent costs necessitate evaluating safe reductions in vector control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the impact of scaling back vector control on malaria transmission and disease.
- To identify conditions under which vector control can be safely reduced.
Main Methods:
- Simulated Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology using a mathematical model.
- Conducted regression analysis on simulation results to predict resurgence probabilities, severity, and timing.
Main Results:
- Few scenarios allow vector control removal without high resurgence risk.
- Safe reduction scenarios require low historic inoculation rates, near-elimination, and robust surveillance with effective treatment.
Conclusions:
- Careful risk assessment is vital before scaling back vector control.
- Continuous, long-term surveillance is necessary to detect and respond to resurgence.