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Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and
Philip G Oguntunde1,2, Gunnar Lischeid3,4, Ottfried Dietrich3
1Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Landscape Hydrology, Müncheberg, Germany. pgoguntunde@futa.edu.ng.
International Journal of Biometeorology
|October 17, 2017
Summary
Climate variations significantly impact rice yield in Nigeria. Solar radiation is the primary climate driver affecting rice production, crucial for developing climate-resilient cultivars and optimizing planting dates.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Data Science
Background:
- Rice yield in southwest Nigeria has shown a significant decrease.
- Climate variables such as pan evaporation, solar radiation, and wind speed have also declined.
- Understanding the complex interplay between climate variability and rice production is crucial for food security.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine climate variable variations and rice yield in southwest Nigeria.
- To quantify the relationships between climate variables and rice yield.
- To identify key climate drivers influencing rice production for improved agricultural strategies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized multiple linear regression, principal component analysis (PCA), and support vector machine (SVM) analysis.
- Analyzed 36 years of climate and rice yield data (1980-2015).
- Employed PCA to identify major variance components and SVM for predictive modeling.
Main Results:
- Solar radiation, pan evaporation, and wind speed showed significant declines correlating with decreased rice yield.
- The first principal component (PC1) explained a substantial portion of climate variability and showed trends similar to rice yield.
- SVM regression models, particularly using PC1 scores and solar radiation, effectively explained a significant portion of rice yield variance (up to 75%).
Conclusions:
- Solar radiation is the most influential climate variable on rice yield, especially during critical growth stages.
- Rice production exhibits inter-annual sensitivity to climate variability, highlighting the need for climate-adaptive strategies.
- Findings support the development of climate-resilient rice cultivars and optimized planting dates for enhanced radiation use efficiency.