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Published on: July 30, 2019
General ecological models for human subsistence, health and poverty
Calistus N Ngonghala1, Giulio A De Leo2, Mercedes M Pascual3,4
1Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA. calistusnn@ufl.edu.
This study models rural poverty and health, revealing that biological and economic factors create feedback loops leading to persistent poverty. Disease parameters significantly impact these systems, highlighting crucial areas for sustainable development interventions.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Economics
- Public Health
Background:
- Rural populations depend on natural resources for subsistence.
- Infectious diseases cause high morbidity and mortality among the rural poor.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a general framework for modeling subsistence and health in rural populations.
- To analyze the interplay between ecological and economic systems influencing poverty.
Main Methods:
- Coupling dynamic models of population ecology with economic growth models.
- Analyzing various system-specific scenarios under alternative assumptions.
Main Results:
- Feedback loops between biological and economic systems can cause persistent poverty.
- Three regimes were identified: stable development, stable poverty, and bistability.
- Bistability in disease-economic systems occurs in approximately 20% of parameter space.
Conclusions:
- The proportion of parameters leading to poverty exceeds those for healthy development.
- Human disease parameters are the most sensitive factors influencing these systems.
- The framework identifies key feedbacks and parameters for effective rural poverty reduction strategies.
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