Incident mental disorders in the aftermath of traumatic events: A prospective-longitudinal community study

Few strictly prospective-longitudinal community studies examined the role of traumatic events for risk of developing a broad range of incident mental disorders over several years.

A representative community sample of adolescents and young adults (n = 2797, baseline age 14-24) was prospectively examined in up to three assessment waves over up to 10 years. Traumatic events and DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed at each wave using the DIA-X/M-CIDI. Associations between traumatic events (meeting the DSM-IV A1-criterion for posttraumatic stress disorder, PTSD) or qualifying traumatic events (meeting the DSM-IV A2-criterion) at baseline and incident disorders at follow-up were tested with logistic regressions adjusted for gender and age.

While traumatic and qualifying traumatic events at baseline were related to various baseline disorders, considerably fewer associations were found in strictly prospective analyses with incident disorders at follow-up as outcomes. After adjustment for baseline disorders, only (a) the association of traumatic events with incident specific phobias (Odds Ratio, OR = 1.6) and (b) the associations of qualifying traumatic events with incident specific phobias (OR = 1.6), PTSD (OR = 2.5) and major depressive episodes (OR = 1.4) remained significant.

Targeted prevention and early intervention among traumatized individuals may be particularly beneficial to lower the incidence of specific phobias and MDE besides PTSD.

Associations between traumatic events and incident mental disorders might be underestimated, as cases developing psychopathology immediately after trauma exposure prior to baseline were excluded in our strictly prospective analyses.