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A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Season of infectious mononucleosis as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis: A UK primary care case-control study
Christina Downham1, Elizabeth Visser2, Mark Vickers3
1Department of Surgery, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, Aberdeen AB25 2ZN, United Kingdom.
Background:
Infectious mononucleosis (IM) and vitamin D deficiency are both risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS).
Objective:
We wished to establish if IM in the winter months when vitamin D levels are low may be a greater risk factor for MS than IM in the summer months.
Methods:
We identified all patients with MS diagnosed aged 16-60 in a large primary care database in the United Kingdom and matched each by age, sex, general practice and observation period with up to six controls. We identified a coded diagnosis of IM prior to the index date (date of diagnosis). Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio for prior IM exposure in cases versus controls and for winter versus summer exposure in cases and controls with prior IM exposure.
Results:
Based on 9247 cases and 55,033 matched controls (246 and 846 with prior IM respectively), IM was associated with the development of MS (OR 1.77, 95%CI 1.53-2.05) but there was no evidence that IM in the winter as opposed to summer was associated with developing MS (OR 1.09, 95%CI 0.72-1.66).
Conclusion:
We found no evidence that the season of IM influences the risk of subsequent MS.
Insights
Infectious mononucleosis (IM) increases multiple sclerosis (MS) risk, but the season of IM infection does not affect MS development. This study found no link between winter IM and higher MS risk compared to summer IM.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Epidemiology
- Immunology
Background:
- Infectious mononucleosis (IM) and vitamin D deficiency are identified risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS).
- The potential impact of seasonal variations in vitamin D levels on MS risk following IM is not well understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether IM during winter, a period of lower vitamin D levels, poses a greater risk for developing MS compared to IM during summer.
- To analyze the association between the timing of IM infection and subsequent MS diagnosis.
Main Methods:
- A case-control study utilizing a large UK primary care database.
- Matched 9247 MS cases (aged 16-60) with up to six controls.
- Logistic regression analysis was employed to assess the odds of prior IM exposure and seasonal influence.
Main Results:
- Infectious mononucleosis (IM) was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis (MS) (OR 1.77).
- No statistically significant difference in MS risk was observed between IM acquired in winter versus summer (OR 1.09).
Conclusions:
- The findings indicate that while IM is a risk factor for MS, the season in which IM occurs does not appear to modify this risk.
- Further research may explore other environmental or genetic factors influencing MS development post-IM.
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